Venezuela’s story is among the most tragic and paradoxical in modern history. Once a uniquely prosperous South American democracy, it is now one of the poorest countries in the world, tightly gripped by authoritarianism. A country that used to be a sought-after refuge for many Europeans fleeing World War II is currently witnessing one of the largest migration crises ever. What lies behind Venezuela’s dramatic change? And is it possible to reverse this scenario in the upcoming year?
The oil paradox
Oil has become the country’s blessing and, simultaneously, its curse. The discovery of black gold in the 1920s led to rapid economic growth, turning Venezuela into a powerful petrostate. For most of the second half of the past century, it could be an example to its continental neighbours as the most modern and prosperous country in South America with a solid democratic foundation. However, this stability started to erode in 1998 with the election of a leftist military commandant Hugo Chávez as Venezuelan president.
Chávez launched an unprecedented socialist program promising a “social revolution”, also known as the Bolivarian Revolution, carrying the name of South American independence hero Simón Bolívar. His left-wing populist ideology has become known as “Chavismo”. Taking advantage of high oil prices, the massive development programs improved the quality of life of many Venezuelans, especially those from poorer strata of society. Still, they resulted in Venezuela’s deep indebtedness in the long run. In addition, Chávez’s nearly 13 years in office were marked by controversial reforms aimed at concentrating power, ruining the country’s system of checks and balances, and leading it on an authoritarian path.
From prosperity to humanitarian crisis
As the economic growth could not last eternally, the dependency on oil as a single source of wealth took a heavy toll. The government’s failure to diversify the economy and take effective policies to cope with the volatility of oil prices revealed Venezuela’s fragility. Combined with institutional erosion, corruption, hyperinflation, and the burden of US sanctions, Venezuela found itself self-destructed. It has experienced the largest-ever economic decline outside of war, revolution, or state collapse.
Chávez died in 2013 and was replaced by the ideologically aligned Nicolás Maduro, who lacks the popularity and cult of personality of his predecessor. Since 2014, the country has been collapsing, falling into severe economic, political, and humanitarian crises. Millions of Venezuelans have been suffering from scarcity of basic goods, including a lack of food supply, regular power cuts, and inaccessible medical care.
The enormous public discontent culminated in one of the largest displacement crises in the world with an estimated 7.77 million people leaving the country since 2015. Meanwhile, Maduro’s government has been attempting to consolidate power through massive repressions towards the protesters and potential political enemies. For many, the 2024 presidential election represented hope for a better future. Five months later, all we have been witnessing so far is deepening uncertainty and many question marks.
Election with an unclear winner
In July’s elections, the opposing candidates were the current president Nicolás Maduro, and Edmundo Gonzáles, replacing centre-right candidate María Corina Machado, who had been banned from running over alleged fraud and tax violation. However, both opposition figures have been cooperating closely and running de facto as a duo. Although Maduro had promised fair elections, the reality proved very different. Besides banning Machado from running, the election was accompanied by protests and clashes with National Guards, resulting in arrests and deaths. However, the biggest uproar was caused by the election result itself.
With 80% of the votes counted, the National Electoral Council (CNE) officially announced that Maduro emerged victorious, securing 51.2% of the votes compared to Gonzáles‘ 44.2%. However, the opposition dismissed the results, asserting that their calculations showed Gonzalez as the winner. Specifically, they announced that they had acquired over 73% of the tally sheets, which revealed more than 6 million votes for Gonzalez compared to just 2.7 million for Maduro. So, who will become the president?
Uncertain future
As we can see, the results are disputed. Venezuelan authorities confirmed the victory for Maduro, who has the loyalty of the military, electoral institutions, judicial bodies, and other governmental entities, while also receiving support from abroad, namely from Russia and China. On the contrary, the United States, the European Parliament, and several South American countries recognized Gonzáles as the president-elect. Meanwhile, the opposition led by Gonzáles flew to Madrid following an arrest warrant issued against him by the Venezuelan authorities, seeking asylum in Spain.
Following the election, Venezuela was flooded by widespread protests and violent government crackdowns. The everyday situation remains marked by political instability and human rights violations, with millions of people in need of humanitarian assistance. Although Maduro’s third term in office is approaching an end, he is ready to start his fourth on January 10, 2025, despite the allegations of electoral fraud. However, González declared that he would not preside over the government in exile and promised to return to Venezuela to take power with Machado as vice president. Based on these words, Venezuela is heading for a tumultuous January and probably for months if not years in a similar vein.
Author: Adela Sadloňová
Source: Pixabay
